A Victorious Iran: What It Would Mean

Assuming that the worst fears about a resurgent Persian Empire are realized, what would the consequences be? According to this analysis from Kuwait’s Arab-language Al-Seyassah, Iran would recover its place as the locus of Muslim fundamentalism, displacing the al-Qaeda interlopers; it would have a near monopoly over the planet’s oil supply; and it would have a nuclear deterrent to boot.

By Ali Hussein Bakeer, Researcher of International Relations

April 15, 2006

We don’t want this article of ours to be a call for a strike against Iran as much as the sounding of a final warning to the Arab States, because Iranian influence has currently reached its greatest peak since the waning of influence of the Persian Empire [About 700 BC - 1500 AD ] and, following that, the Safavid Dynasty [1501 - 1796 ]. Nor does this article of ours stem from a phobia of Iran’s expanding influence, as much as it stems from the reality of Arab inferiority at all levels. We are not talking about historical delusions or projections; rather, we are talking about realities and truths that no logical person can deny and that cannot be hidden, except from the deaf, dumb and blind.

[Editor's Note: Readers should take note of the fact that Iran is NOT an Arab country. The Iranians are Persian [ ], who are and who see themselves as utterly distinct from the Arabs. This difference, while in recent history often papered-over, characterizes the history and relations between Iran and its Arab-Muslim brethren].

The Gulf States have has to contend with the widening scope of Iranian influence, especially after Tehran’s nibble of Iraq, which was accompanied by the unmistakable gulp of Syria and Lebanon, and which has reached, to a greater or lesser extent, as far as Palestine, Jordan, Sudan, and Egypt. And they [the Gulf States] wonder, why this Iranian relentlessness?

MOTIVES FOR RELENTLESSNESS

Many fear the likelihood of the creation of a Persian-Shiite Empire, which would immediately follow any shock that befalls Saudi Arabia, and which would ripple through the region extending from the Arab Gulf, in addition to its control over Iraq to the west, its northward extension into Azerbaijan, and its expansion eastward into Afghanistan. In this way, then, this empire will have at its disposal all of the military and economic tools needed to confront the largest Gulf States and control their refinery capacity, giving it a de-facto monopoly over most of the world’s oil reserves, while in possession of nuclear deterrence.

Given the present situation, we agree with this perspective and analysis; however, what we object to and find strange is that to blame Iran for this situation, it is also assumed that Arabs blame this situation on themselves and notably, the United States, which is said to have facilitated Iran’s control and the strengthening of its influence in the manner that we are seeing today.

One American writer says that the current Iranian relentlessness is attributable to one of the following:

1) That Iranian President Ahmadinejad is crazy and naive, wants the West to destroy his country, and is leading them toward that eventuality with the positions he has taken and the statements he has made [wiping Israel off the map, Holocaust being exaggerated, etc.].

2) Or, that the present situation is the result of extremely complex Iranian political and diplomatic maneuvering, aimed at stalling for time.

3) Or, that the Iranians are struggling desperately to attain a nuclear weapon as deterrence against Israel.

4) Or, that the Iranians really want Israel to attack and bomb them – and that indeed, they would welcome this.

As far as the first possibility goes, sometimes being insane in regard to foreign policy means your steps take others by surprise, and this keeps them constantly unsure of the subsequent movements and goals that you are striving for. Insanity is often necessary in the realm of foreign policy, because whenever others are unable to anticipate your movements, your power increases. Some people strive to be crazy and others really are.

In any case, some people connect Ahmadinejad’s rise to prominence and Iran’s struggle to possess nuclear power with Iran’s competition with al-Qaeda. According to this perspective, Iran represented, during [the Ayatollah] Khomeini’s time, three principle ideas:

1) That Iran was the center of the Islamic Revolution and resistance to the United States.

2) That it was the hope for the weak and oppressed.

3) That it was the symbol of Shiite power and defender of Muslim rights.

However, its weapons deal with Israel [Iran-Contra Scandal ] and then subsequent bargains with America and the West over a large number of issues, such as the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, damaged this image. The rise of al-Qaeda has been the fatal blow to Iran. Iran didn’t welcome the emergence of any state or movement capable of replacing it as the defender of Muslims and opponent of the West.

Specifically, Tehran considers al-Qaeda a consequence of the rivalry between Pakistan and Saudi Wahhabism [ ]. In 2005, Iran worked to secure its western border and penetrate Iraq, in order to weaken al-Qaeda. After that came the next step, which was for Iran to reclaim its place as leader of the Islamic resistance movement. The selection of Ahmadinejad as president of Iran was carried out with great care, after the removal of the reformers and the exclusion of [Hashemi] Rafsanjani, who had previously represented the spirit of the revolution, yet whose name was also tied to the weapons deal with Israel. Ahmadinejad was selected as the candidate whose image was the closest match to Khomeini’s revolution.

Ahmadinejad has done what had been planned for him to do, which was to reclaim Iran’s place as the revolutionary center of the Islamic World, through his speeches targeting Israel and denying the Jewish Holocaust. Through these incendiary statements, he intended to do two things:

1) Lay out a cultural path for himself, persuading others to believe that he is hostile toward Jews and Israelis, and that because of this, he is the greatest, most vehement fundamentalist Muslim leader.

2) Eliminate former President Khatami’s role, and the course Khatami had laid out leading to closer ties to America and the West by focusing Tehran’s efforts initially toward Europe.

For during Khatami’s reign, Iran had won Europe to its side in regard to America, but it lost Muslims, who remembered yet again Iran’s selfish, self-serving policies in the matter of cooperating with Israel, which were based on hypocrisy, and were not based on principle. So Ahmadinejad focused his attacks on Israel and Europe to regain Iran’s share of Muslim support, thus ending Khatami’s game, plan and reign, and turning instead to a new game, which is:

Nuclear Maneuver

According to what has been explained above, Iran can, upon its possession of a nuclear weapon, achieve the following goals:

1) Be the only competitor of Israel and America in the region, and to control and overshadow the power of any other Sunni-Islamic States, who would kneel before Iran.

2) That Iran had proven itself capable of enduring risks that no other Muslim actor is capable of bearing, for the sake of achieving its goals.

Most, although not every State, neighboring and not neighboring Iran, refuses to approve of Iran attaining a nuclear weapon. Naturally, Israel is one of them - but the Arabs and Turkey are as well, in addition to America. But who, among all of these, can do anything about it?

First, Israel (theoretically), and second, America (actually). But the truth is that America doesn’t want Israel to interfere, because that would complicate matters for America threatens its interests in the region, because increase Muslim support for Iran - which is exactly what Iran has wanted from the beginning.

Briefly, Iran is working to achieve its imperial designs based initially on Shiite Islamic expansion and then, the inclusion of others within this framework, relying on nuclear power and oil. Naturally, Arabs are sleeping the sleep of people in a cave, where "there is no life even for he who yells." They are reaching for our food, and we are sleeping.